| CIO Nadine Terman @SolsteinCapital details what she’s seeing in global financial markets. |
| Powell Speaks The Fed’s Powell is going to speak publicly today at 12:30pm ET at the Economic Club of Washington, which means that the market could swing either way, depending on which Powell we get today: dove or hawk. We’ll see if he talks about Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls strength and lower Unemployment Rate. The Fed’s Bostic, per Reuters, is pointing to a strong jobs market as a reason for rates to go higher for longer. Citi came out, per BBG, saying that the Fed may need to hike until 6%, which is definitely not baked into today’s valuations. |
| UK Developments Although retail has been hit across the pond, consumers are spending on films and holidays, per Reuters. The BoE’s chief economist is talking a hawkish talk as well. They’ve already seen the biggest drop in housebuilding since the start of the pandemic in May 2020, per BTIG. |
| German Slowdown German Industrial Production slowed to its lowest y/y (-3.9%) and m/m growth rates since March 2022. Traders, thus, are pricing in a less hawkish rate hiking pattern by the ECB. We’ve been watching the US Dollar carefully for cues, which strengthened recently. If the USD keeps going up, then we’re not in Goldilocks. If it softens from here, then we could be. So, this should still be on everyone’s radar. |
| Pac Asia/Oceania Developments Australia’s market was down, as their Fed equivalent increased rates and talked about more hikes. Japan’s markets were mixed. China was mixed. South Korea and Taiwan ended higher, with chip stocks rallying. India was down. |
| Oil Up |
| Sports Fixing BBG is out with a story about how gambling apps are aiding sports match-fixing. From snooker to handball to kabaddi (just learned what that is) to tennis, it’s supposedly hot and growing. With 1 in 5 adults betting on this year’s Super Bowl, according to the American Gaming Assoc, we’ll have to add that to the list too. We’ll be in the 4 out of 5 camp, with the only thing we’ll be fixing being wings. |
| A Missing $4bn Investors and consumer groups are asking for a review of PWC’s audit of a Brazilian co called Americanas found to have a $4bn accounting shortfall. |
| Bed, Bath & Bankruptcy They’re still trying to get investors to keep it from filing for bankruptcy. They need a cool $1bn +. |
| State of the Union Biden is giving his speech at 9pm ET. Probably we’ll hear about taxes for billionaires, additional charges for buybacks, that balloon take-down, a 200% tariff on Russian aluminum, the debt ceiling discussions, and Harry Styles’ Grammy’s clown outfit. |
